This Is Really Just
A Game Of Numbers, And Angles
Super Bowl winning
coach, and NFL analyst, Brian Billick has popularized the phrase, ‘professional
football has been and always will be a game of numbers, angles, rhythm and
symmetry’.
Numbers in this case
refers to the matchups and mismatches on the field, such as when 3 receivers
are lined up on the same side of the field, with the defense showing zone
coverage with 2 deep safeties (the safety on the far side will presumably be
unable to make a play on the side of the field that the 3 receivers are lined
up on, unless leaving his position, and a huge portion of the field wide open).
This would be considered a very favorable matchup for the offence to take
advantage of. The numbers are the first key to running a successful play.
But all the numbers
in the world, in terms of advantages in personnel, are meaningless if the
receivers don’t take advantage by running routes that place themselves between
the quarterback and the closest defender. If the defender is able to identify
the route and place himself between the targeted receiver and the quarterback,
the likeliness of the play being broken up, or worse yet, intercepted, is
heightened dramatically. Therefore, the angles are the second key to running a
successful play, as they enable the offence to take advantage of the
numbers/mismatches.
Billick is natural
statistician, and goes on to say that over the course of a given season, the
offensive and defensive units will run about 1,000 plays per season. Of these
1,000 plays, roughly 45% of them will be first down plays, with roughly 20%
being third down plays. 14% of plays will be within the ‘red zone’ (AKA within
scoring range by most accounts), with 2.5% of plays from the goal line. These
numbers heavily influence how much time is spent practicing specific
situations, and with good reason – why would anyone invest a lot of time into
practicing a situation that you’re only going to face 2.5% of the time? You
have to get to the goal line first, and if you can’t do that, there’s not much
value in practicing plays from there.
This is where
symmetry comes in, as it refers to the amount of time spent on the demand of
the situation – since third down plays occupy only 20% of the situations that
will be faced, more time is spent practicing first down plays, which occupy 45%
of the situations. Time is spent on addressing and practicing for the situation
that requires the most attention, and will make the greatest impact on the
outcome of the game. This is the third key to being able to successfully run a
play – practicing the numbers and angles.
Rhythm is developed
as a result of the symmetry, which in this case refers to successfully running
plays – as situations are practiced and dealt with, and success is seen in the
physical form, momentum begins to form, and things come together more
naturally. As a team’s ability to string together successful plays improves,
confidence is built, and more time can be spent on addressing other situations
that require it the most, in the hopes of creating the most complete team as
possible.